Understanding climate
for the benefit of society

Improving winter storm predictions

Winter storm tracks near Norway are not always well represented in global climate models. A new study shows that removing known biases from the start can improve  the results. 


Written by Marie Pontoppidan from the Bjerknes Centre and NORCE.

Severe weather in western Norway is often related to low pressure systems. The path of these systems is biased in global climate models, leading to systematic errors. In this study we correct these biases before we downscale the Norwegian climate model. Our results suggest that this approach leads to more realistic winter storm tracks, and accordingly better precipitation estimates.


Pontoppidan, M., Kolstad, E. W., Sobolowski, S., & King, M. P. (2018). Improving the reliability and added value of dynamical downscaling via correction of large‐scale errors: A Norwegian perspective. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123, 11,875–11,888. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028372