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The Bjerknes Centre is a collaboration on climate research, between the University of Bergen, Uni Research, the Institute of Marine Research, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre.

Presentation of SKD-projects: iNcREASE

Researchers, goals, main results, the next step

iNcREASE - NoRthern European and Arctic Sea lEvel

What are the goals of the project?

iNcREASE seeks to improve projections of future sea level in the North Sea and along the Norwegian coast, and to give us a better understanding of the effects of expansion and circulation on regional sea-level from decadal to centennial time scales. Our findings give potential for improvement in the climate models. In collaboration with other BCCR-projects we aim to become a centre capable of answering the demands of society for applied sea-level projections.


What are the main results so far?

The main results from iNcREASE thus far lies in the making of the official regional future sea-level projection for Norway. The average likely range of projected 21st century relative sea-level change in Norway is 10-65 cm for RCP8,5. This applied work has also clearly identified where the future efforts need to be made to improve coastal sea-level projections, in research on ocean expansion and dynamics.


What are the future plans?

The key task is to make an assessment of the effect of dynamic and steric changes on the sea level of the neighbouring shelves and coasts, using CMIP5 models and other ocean models, including TOPAZ. We will also implement assimilation of altimetry data within NorCPM, to see how decadal prediction of sea level variability can be improved. Arranging annual workshops on sea-level research, with participants from other sea-level relevant projects and international partners, is also an important part of the project. 


Who is involved?

NERSC: Jan Even Øie Nilsen, François Counillon, Johnny Johannessen, Roshin Raj, Laurent Bertino

UiB: Leon Chafik (new researcher), Helge Drange

Uni Research: Mats Bentsen

Duration: 2015 - 2017